Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe463…fb7b other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$198 (+6%) realized +$194 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$204
world 1% −$5
economics 1% $0
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 60% -0.3%
≤30d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 60% -0.3%
≤90d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 60% -0.3%
all 5 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 60% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 60% -0.3%
10% -3.0% 20% -9.9%
15% -12.3% 20% -18.6%
20% -20.9% 0% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,390
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 84¢ 87¢ $420 $435 +$15 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $249 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $132 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 52¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$87 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $502 +$60 +12%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $15 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $133 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 84¢ $423 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $250 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $20 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 85¢ $15 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $50 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $1,003 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $502 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,389.99 · official $1,389.99 (match) · 18 history records