Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe463…d222 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$120 (-12%) realized −$127 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$58
sports 11% −$36
crypto 11% −$100
world 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -24.8%
≤30d 19 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -24.8%
≤90d 19 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -24.8%
all 19 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 47% -24.8%
10% -25.1% 47% -32.0%
15% -32.3% 47% -38.6%
20% -39.0% 26% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$42 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$26 -86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$63 +246%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$33 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 39h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $40 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.87 · official $166.87 (match) · 39 history records