Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe462…e436
sports · 141 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,285 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,673 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$4,673
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 114
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage34d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$700
7 days−$895
14 days−$3,768
30 days−$3,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 8¢ 32¢ $9 $35 +$26 (+294%)
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ 23¢ $36 $29 −$7 (-20%)
James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 Yes 52¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Sofia Kenin 19¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Elvina Kalieva 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Elias Ymer 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $357 $0 −$357 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 29¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Hubert Hurkacz 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $479 $0 −$479 (-100%)
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Siegemund vs Jones Jones 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva Alina Korneeva 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $40 +$77 +194%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $74 −$50 -67%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $99 −$96 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $108 −$105 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $101 −$9 -9%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +103%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $270 −$265 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $141 +$140 +99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $54 −$52 -98%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $241 −$207 -86%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $89 −$87 -97%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $30 +$42 +143%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $113 −$111 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $47 −$46 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $143 −$140 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $68 −$19 -28%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $34 −$33 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Siegemund vs Jones Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Alice Tubello Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $43 −$42 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $259 +$283 +109%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $201 +$455 +226%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 08 $114 −$112 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $24 +$139 +589%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $92 −$90 -98%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $64 +$61 +95%
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs Kessler Jun 08 $7 +$56 +776%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Samsonova Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Cristian Jun 08 $118 +$199 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$5,430
other 8% +$1,093
crypto 5% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 8¢ $9 1m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $37 3m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $117 13m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 19¢ $50 34m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 33¢ $40 43m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 99¢ $271 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 45¢ $51 1h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 2¢ $10 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 8¢ $24 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 29¢ $32 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $20 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $26 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $99 20h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 9¢ $45 20h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $153 21h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $102 21h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $102 21h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 29¢ $63 22h
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef SELL Celine Naef 99¢ $175 22h
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 3¢ $9 22h
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 51¢ $91 23h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 2¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 23h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 7¢ $30 23h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 17¢ $39 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $9 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -38.5% -44.4% 18% 18% -34.3%
≤30d 133 -11.6% -20.0% 18% 18% -37.9%
≤90d 138 -14.8% -22.9% 17% 17% -42.2%
all 138 -14.8% -22.9% 17% 17% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 17% -42.2%
10% -30.3% 17% -47.7%
15% -37.0% 17% -52.8%
20% -43.2% 17% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.37 · official $64.20 (match) · 189 history records