Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe45f…0e44 crypto 741 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1002 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,942 (+18%) realized +$3,942 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%350W / 391L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1001.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1002 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 741 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 42% -10.1%
≤30d 741 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 42% -10.1%
≤90d 741 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 42% -10.1%
all 741 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 42% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1001.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 42% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 36% -18.7%
15% -29.6% 28% -26.6%
20% -36.5% 23% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,942
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses350 / 391
Open positions0
Markets (closed)741 / 741
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1001.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 741 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$36 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$17 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $88 +$84 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$16 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $73 −$13 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$15 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $79 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $113 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $71 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$16 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $84 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $93 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $74 −$12 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$14 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records