Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe45e…fcb8 weather 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized +$94 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%205W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$85
14 days+$193
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$81
crypto 28% −$10
other 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -17.9% -25.7% 61% 37% -8.0%
≤30d 140 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 37% -6.8%
≤90d 320 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 33% -9.2%
all 371 -8.9% -17.6% 55% 36% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -9.4%
10% -25.5% 24% -18.1%
15% -32.7% 19% -26.0%
20% -39.3% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses205 / 166
Open positions3
Markets (closed)371 / 374
History coverage169d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 57¢ 50¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $95 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $333 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $182 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $111 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $96 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $112 +$32 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $142 +$40 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $148 +$50 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $98 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $86 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $161 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $83 +$92 +110%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $193 +$103 +53%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $107 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $142 +$101 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $125 +$23 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $174 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $89 +$23 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $69 +$124 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $92 −$89 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $287 +$29 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $117 −$71 -61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $71 +$41 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $61 −$59 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $343 +$37 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $392 +$27 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $88 −$58 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $16 −$14 -87%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $87 −$76 -88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.19 · official $36.19 (match) · 2789 history records