Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe45e…c84a politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,358 (+4%) realized +$3,358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 65L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,043per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$47
other 37% +$49
sports 13% +$3,350
culture 6% −$8
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 4% -5.1%
all 79 +4.1% -5.8% 18% 9% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 9% -5.9%
10% -14.8% 8% -14.9%
15% -23.1% 5% -23.1%
20% -30.6% 5% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$1,279) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$5 · ×49.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.94 per $1 lost it wins $10.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,050
Realized+$3,358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,043
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $571 $572 +$0 (+0%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $478 $478 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,385 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,279 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $937 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,867 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $765 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $221 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 04 $420 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $316 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,347 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $4,765 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 02 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $461 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $410 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,838 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,746 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2,406 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $4,118 −$4 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Jets Apr 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 07 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $478 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $457 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $458 5h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $233 25h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $234 27h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $571 47h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $986 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $987 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $935 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $937 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $965 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $967 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $763 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $765 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $808 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $735 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $736 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $953 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $954 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $930 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $932 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $831 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $832 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $486 18d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $486 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,049.61 · official $1,049.61 (match) · 249 history records