Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe45c…fb69
sports · 1783 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$461 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$49 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$211
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1103 / 657
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1760 / 1783
History coverage74d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 22 History 1760 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$50
14 days−$106
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-35%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 43¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Mattia Bellucci 79¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-46%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Over 57¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 82¢ 79¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 33¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 59¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 7¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$33 +325%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $20 −$4 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% −$175
other 20% +$42
world 1% −$33
crypto 0% +$41
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 59¢ $10 27m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $15 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $10 32m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $10 34m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 72¢ $27 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100¢ $13 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 78¢ $10 2h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 79¢ $10 2h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 41¢ $10 2h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $10 2h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 74¢ $14 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 53¢ $10 5h
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $10 5h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $10 6h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $10 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $13 21h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 84¢ $13 21h
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos SELL Olympiacos B.C. 99¢ $14 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $10 24h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $12 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.7% -11.1% 64% 61% -13.2%
≤30d 370 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 54% -10.8%
≤90d 1760 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 53% -9.8%
all 1760 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 53% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 33% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 23% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.55 · official $210.60 (match) · 3500 history records