Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe45b…2b52 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-24%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$16
sports 37% −$20
weather 10% −$6
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.1% +5.9% 33% 33% -11.8%
≤30d 6 +17.1% +5.9% 33% 33% -11.8%
≤90d 84 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 35% -32.6%
all 84 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 35% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 35% -32.6%
10% -38.9% 26% -39.0%
15% -44.8% 19% -44.9%
20% -50.2% 15% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 02 $45 −$11 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 01 $1 −$1 -75%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on April 22? Apr 21 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 22? Apr 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 21? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or below on April 18 Apr 18 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 17? Apr 17 $1 +$2 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17? Apr 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $9 −$4 -41%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 34m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $1 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $1 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $1 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL TYLOO $0 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 98¢ $1 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 98¢ $1 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL TYLOO $0 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY TYLOO 25¢ $5 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 72¢ $5 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL TYLOO 14¢ $1 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 83¢ $6 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL TYLOO 26¢ $2 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL TYLOO 32¢ $4 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY TYLOO 57¢ $2 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 46¢ $0 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY TYLOO 51¢ $5 46d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY TYLOO 31¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.30 · official $11.30 (match) · 196 history records