Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe45a…e572 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$19
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 36% -11.8%
≤30d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 31% -12.1%
≤90d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 31% -12.1%
all 16 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 31% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 31% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 6% -20.5%
15% -28.4% 0% -28.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? No 85¢ 99¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 53¢ 60¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $113 −$6 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $123 −$19 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $72 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$33 -67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $94 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$5 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$13 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$5 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $43 +$8 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $86 −$5 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $3 3m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $4 6m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 53m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 53m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 53m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $10 53m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 54m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 55m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 55m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 56m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 57m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 58m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 59m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 54¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 54¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.63 · official $48.17 (match) · 462 history records