Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe459…fab7 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-5%) realized −$90 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$24
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$148
other 14% +$86
crypto 3% −$5
politics 2% −$26
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.7% +15.5% 100% 100% +14.8%
≤30d 14 +20.1% +8.7% 86% 71% -1.0%
≤90d 54 -14.8% -23.0% 61% 43% -16.1%
all 72 -12.0% -20.4% 58% 42% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 42% -14.3%
10% -28.0% 29% -22.5%
15% -35.0% 22% -30.0%
20% -41.3% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage144d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$3 +20%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $17 +$6 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $11 +$6 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $8 +$3 +38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -21%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 $0 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $9 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 +$1 +22%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $4 +$2 +38%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $20 −$17 -83%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) May 16 $19 +$7 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $22 +$5 +22%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $22 −$21 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $17 +$5 +30%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $26 +$11 +43%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $40 +$3 +7%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 06 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $39 +$3 +6%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 03 $22 +$20 +90%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 02 $11 +$2 +17%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $18 +$9 +50%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Apr 19 $92 +$1 +1%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 19 $29 +$91 +311%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 12 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) Apr 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 30 $136 +$5 +4%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $128 +$9 +7%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $20 +$10 +51%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $40 +$17 +42%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 6h
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 6d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 71¢ $17 8d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 64¢ $11 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 54¢ $11 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $8 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 95¢ $9 16d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $9 17d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $2 18d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $1 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 81¢ $6 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $4 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 76¢ $3 24d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes $3 24d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 29d
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) BUY Pistons 59¢ $6 30d
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) BUY Spurs 72¢ $19 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? BUY No 55¢ $7 33d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 81¢ $22 35d
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) BUY Thunder 58¢ $22 36d
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY New York Yankees 85¢ $16 36d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $23 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $37 37d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Timberwolves 75¢ $17 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 68¢ $26 37d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Golden Knights 92¢ $40 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.53 · official $12.53 (match) · 149 history records