Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe459…737d sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$537 (-1%) realized −$515 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%54W / 62L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$471est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$501
7 days−$133
14 days+$990
30 days+$990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$622
other 9% −$920
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.4% -8.3% 48% 46% -10.1%
≤30d 68 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 44% -5.6%
≤90d 69 -2.1% -11.4% 48% 43% -6.2%
all 116 +6.7% -3.5% 47% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 41% -12.4%
10% -12.7% 36% -20.8%
15% -21.2% 36% -28.5%
20% -28.9% 32% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$621) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$255 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$515
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses54 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage171d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 66¢ $219 $196 −$22 (-10%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 70¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $324 +$276 +85%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $913 −$13 -1%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2,314 −$992 -43%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1 +$1 +60%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $477 −$470 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$14 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,069 −$24 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $490 +$711 +145%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $168 −$32 -19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $245 +$16 +7%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $883 +$911 +103%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $92 +$56 +61%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $335 +$47 +14%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $44 +$56 +127%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $194 +$186 +96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $147 +$153 +104%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $98 +$279 +285%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $490 +$509 +104%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $265 +$235 +89%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $550 −$550 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $342 +$302 +88%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $255 −$255 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $427 −$423 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $266 −$171 -64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,128 −$570 -51%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $480 +$520 +108%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $1,130 +$832 +74%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $170 +$130 +76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $556 −$12 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,001 −$11 -1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $132 −$131 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$4 +96%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $269 +$440 +163%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $705 +$790 +112%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $948 −$50 -5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $190 −$188 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $519 −$95 -18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,360 −$244 -18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,617 −$1,610 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $179 +$39 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $206 +$36 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $104 −$104 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $97 +$79 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $23 8m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $7 8m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $219 21m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 61¢ $84 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 61¢ $38 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 27¢ $166 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 58¢ $587 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $324 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $477 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $65 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $17 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $3 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $6 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $7 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $17 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $15 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $25 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $215 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $4 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $3 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $50 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $159 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $804 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $524 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $21 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $21 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.61 · official $227.61 (match) · 842 history records