Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe457…5ab3
other · 604 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$766 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$683 · open −$70
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$270
Realized−$683
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses54 / 507
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions36
Markets (closed)561 / 604
History coverage33d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 36 History 561 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$372
14 days−$634
30 days−$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? No 93¢ 93¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 88¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 83¢ 80¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 75¢ $16 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? No 73¢ 71¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 68¢ 64¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? No 77¢ 58¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 66¢ 57¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 58¢ 55¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 65¢ 52¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 68¢ 48¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 48¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? No 57¢ 40¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-30%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 42¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 34¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 38¢ 32¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 53¢ 24¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-56%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 27¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 13 $173 −$8 -4%
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? Jun 13 $19 $0 -3%
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 13 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 13 $63 −$2 -2%
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 13 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next elec Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 -6%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 13 $16 $0 -1%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 13 $108 −$3 -2%
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$3 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 13 $61 −$2 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $21 −$1 -2%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will Kerry Carpenter win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designate Jun 13 $0 $0 -12%
Tabi FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 13 $80 −$1 -2%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $136 −$1 -1%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -23%
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$393
politics 20% −$174
world 16% −$55
tech 8% −$64
sports 6% −$24
finance 6% −$35
crypto 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? BUY No 3¢ $1 3m
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 43¢ $3 54m
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 54m
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 43¢ $3 56m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 56m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 68¢ $11 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 1h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 2h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2h
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 SELL No 87¢ $7 2h
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 BUY No 87¢ $7 2h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 2h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 2h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 58¢ $3 2h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 57¢ $3 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 62¢ $12 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 62¢ $12 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 3h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? SELL No 3¢ $1 3h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? BUY No 4¢ $1 3h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 62¢ $4 3h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 64¢ $8 3h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -8.6% -17.3% 1% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 560 -9.1% -17.8% 10% 1% -14.1%
≤90d 561 -9.1% -17.8% 10% 1% -14.1%
all 561 -9.1% -17.8% 10% 1% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 1% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -22.3%
15% -32.8% 0% -29.8%
20% -39.4% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.05 · official $270.15 (match) · 3287 history records