Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe451…cca6 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$2
politics 22% +$10
other 14% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -10.0%
all 39 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -8.8%
10% -18.1% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.0% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage485d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 86¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 08 $20 $0 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $0 $0 -57%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 21 $6 +$11 +170%
Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $2 $0 -18%
Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Feb 23 $2 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $38 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $24 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $13 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.09 · official $37.84 (match) · 121 history records