Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe450…91b9
other · 729 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$941 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$871 · open +$119
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,115
Realized+$871
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses366 / 184
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions206
Markets (closed)550 / 729
History coverage65d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 206 History 550 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$9
14 days+$151
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $43 $58 +$15 (+34%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026? No 71¢ 85¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 16¢ 34¢ $13 $27 +$14 (+111%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $6 $25 +$19 (+311%)
Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 74¢ 87¢ $21 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 82¢ 96¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 3¢ 17¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+377%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? No 66¢ 84¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+26%)
Dreamcash FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 47¢ 54¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+14%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 38¢ 59¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+53%)
Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 71¢ 80¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No 47¢ 30¢ $31 $20 −$11 (-36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Ethereal FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 83¢ 92¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Unit FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 81¢ 79¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? No 55¢ 58¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Dreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 83¢ 75¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 52¢ 60¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 29¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? No 60¢ 84¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+41%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 76¢ 61¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 14 $1 −$2 -126%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +654%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +320%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +87%
Tuyo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +137%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1 $0 +37%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% +$87
other 22% +$172
world 17% +$336
politics 10% +$379
tech 4% +$4
crypto 2% −$29
finance 2% +$36
economics 1% +$18
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1 27m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1 47m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 59¢ $1 58m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $1 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 54¢ $3 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $3 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 63¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $1 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $3 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $3 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $7 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 59¢ $2 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $1 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $1 7h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 31¢ $4 8h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 12h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 12h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +1.3% -8.4% 68% 57% -6.3%
≤30d 329 +13.3% +2.5% 71% 57% +4.0%
≤90d 550 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 53% +5.9%
all 550 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 53% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 53% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 39% -4.2%
15% -9.1% 26% -13.5%
20% -18.0% 19% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,114.92 · official $1,114.56 (match) · 3500 history records