Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe44c…32a5 sports 716 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized +$42 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%85W / 613L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days−$210
14 days−$107
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$267
other 3% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -10.7% -19.2% 8% 8% -17.2%
≤30d 405 -7.5% -16.3% 8% 8% -10.6%
≤90d 617 -11.6% -20.0% 8% 8% -50.7%
all 698 -7.5% -16.4% 12% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 12% -10.8%
10% -24.4% 12% -19.3%
15% -31.7% 11% -27.1%
20% -38.4% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$26 · ×6.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses85 / 613
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions18
Markets (closed)698 / 716
History coverage224d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Pierre Antoine Tailleu Pierre Antoine Tailleu 7¢ 16¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+124%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Lindorfitos 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Ignacio Monzon 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Cloud Rising 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
ITF Luque: Maria Herazo vs Agustina Soto Neira Agustina Soto Neira 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Andrea Palazon Lacasa 9¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez Alex Hernandez 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren August Holmgren 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Andrea M'chich vs Hugo Car Andrea Mchich 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Alexander Weis 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Yibing Wu 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jaime Faria 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 397 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 +$101 +982%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $10 +$114 +1108%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Klosters: Adrien Burdet vs Andrej Martin Jun 16 $10 +$101 +982%
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $10 +$133 +1290%
ITF San Gregorio: Irina Balus vs Maria Toma Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
ITF Gyula: Bercel Sandor Takacs vs Abel Forger Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Milano: Federico Arnaboldi vs Gilberto Ravasio Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Luciano vs Alesia Breaz Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Blois: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Francesca Curmi Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Blois: Amandine Hesse vs Jasmijn Gimbrere Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Bucharest: Daria Stefania Malaescu vs Linda Sevcikova Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Sapporo: Shihomi Li Xuan Leong vs Hee Rae Im Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Yujin Kim Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 9¢ $10 1m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 10¢ $10 25m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Ignacio Monzon 9¢ $10 29m
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 7¢ $10 37m
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY August Holmgren 7¢ $10 37m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $10 56m
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Andrea M'chich vs Hugo Car BUY Andrea Mchich 8¢ $10 1h
ITF Luque: Maria Herazo vs Agustina Soto Neira BUY Agustina Soto Neira 9¢ $10 1h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Alexander Weis 9¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 6¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Mathys Erhard 6¢ $10 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Kristina Mladenovic 9¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Olle Wallin 7¢ $10 1h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Pierre Antoine Tailleu BUY Pierre Antoine Tailleu 7¢ $10 2h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 6¢ $10 2h
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini BUY Miriana Tona 6¢ $10 2h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Rio Noguchi 8¢ $10 2h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 5¢ $10 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 9¢ $10 2h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 9¢ $10 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Angelina Voloshchuk 10¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan BUY Akira Santillan 6¢ $10 3h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 8¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 9¢ $10 4h
ITF San Gregorio: Irina Balus vs Maria Toma BUY Maria Toma 7¢ $10 4h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 7¢ $10 4h
ITF Klosters: Adrien Burdet vs Andrej Martin BUY Adrien Burdet 9¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 10¢ $10 5h
ITF Gyula: Bercel Sandor Takacs vs Abel Forger BUY Bercel Sandor Takacs 9¢ $10 6h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Shuai Zhang 9¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.08 · official $59.87 · 1121 history records