Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe448…bedd crypto 103 markets active 6d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-12%) realized −$128 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%52W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$157
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.8% -24.7% 56% 52% -17.9%
≤30d 27 -16.8% -24.7% 56% 52% -17.9%
≤90d 100 -15.5% -23.5% 52% 48% -23.6%
all 100 -15.5% -23.5% 52% 48% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 48% -23.6%
10% -30.9% 42% -30.9%
15% -37.5% 32% -37.6%
20% -43.7% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses52 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage33d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$9 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 17 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.43 · official $2.43 (match) · 280 history records