Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe446…484e other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%50W / 69L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$10
world 25% +$4
other 22% +$1
politics 9% +$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.6% -3.6% 33% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 29 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 7% -9.4%
all 119 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses50 / 69
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage535d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $2 $0 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $127 +$3 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $110 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $101 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $7 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $98 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $195 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $91 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $510 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $552 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $553 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $94 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 17h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 37h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $32 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $104 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $104 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $94 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $94 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $94 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $95 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $96 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $61 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.65 · official $94.76 (match) · 377 history records