Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
E4 0xe444…fa95 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,963 (+29%) realized +$5,089 · open −$126
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$255est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days+$1,898
14 days+$2,526
30 days+$5,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$5,602
other 14% −$1,183
crypto 1% +$357
world 0% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.6% +20.0% 43% 43% +15.5%
≤30d 22 +40.7% +27.3% 55% 55% +32.5%
≤90d 22 +40.7% +27.3% 55% 55% +32.5%
all 22 +40.7% +27.3% 55% 55% +32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.3% 55% +32.5%
10% +15.1% 55% +19.8%
15% +4.0% 50% +8.2%
20% -6.2% 50% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$631 vs −$253 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5,723
Realized+$5,089
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$255
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage20d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 63¢ 59¢ $2,364 $2,203 −$161 (-7%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2,135 $2,121 −$14 (-1%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $726 $804 +$79 (+11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $433 $419 −$14 (-3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $92 −$5 (-5%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $95 $84 −$11 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 20 $495 +$124 +25%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $495 −$158 -32%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $856 −$206 -24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $247 +$318 +129%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $247 −$242 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $594 −$589 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $198 −$194 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$146 +614%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,821 +$3,057 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $124 +$196 +158%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $124 +$97 +78%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $124 −$122 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $124 −$121 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 13 $413 −$407 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $297 +$287 +97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $247 −$244 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $247 +$229 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $247 +$357 +144%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $495 +$573 +116%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $247 +$222 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $247 −$244 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1,980 +$1,969 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,153 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,390 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 25¢ $619 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 26¢ $337 6h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 15¢ $99 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 48¢ $650 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 61¢ $856 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $566 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 33h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $247 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $247 35h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $445 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $495 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 23¢ $743 3d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 19¢ $495 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $594 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $198 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $169 5d
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 89¢ $221 6d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $124 6d
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $124 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 34¢ $124 6d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $17 6d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $99 7d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $297 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $841 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,732 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 96¢ $584 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 48¢ $297 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $124 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,722.92 · official $5,721.66 (match) · 49 history records