Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe443…3c81 world 85 markets active 2d ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate54%46W / 39L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$4
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$32
other 15% −$8
sports 10% +$3
politics 8% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 29% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 33 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 9% -7.9%
≤90d 75 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 8% -8.7%
all 85 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 7% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 5% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses46 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage532d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $57 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $71 −$6 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $121 −$4 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $23 −$2 -7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $92 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $78 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $71 +$6 +9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $78 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $75 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $115 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $107 +$31 +29%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $64 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $114 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 +$1 +26%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $50 −$3 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $37 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $3 +$1 +46%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $16 −$4 -23%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos May 07 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $3 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $67 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $48 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $21 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $44 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $71 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $54 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 6d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records