Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe43f…fada other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 45L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$2
world 24% +$3
politics 17% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 10% -8.8%
all 72 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage295d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 64¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $9 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $38 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $3 +$1 +36%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $15 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 26 $22 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $35 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 07 $3 $0 -5%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +22%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 27h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $23 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $15 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $38 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $38 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $40 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $6 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.22 · official $43.22 (match) · 225 history records