Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe43e…c998 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.4% +7.1% 75% 62% -14.3%
≤30d 8 +18.4% +7.1% 75% 62% -14.3%
≤90d 8 +18.4% +7.1% 75% 62% -14.3%
all 8 +18.4% +7.1% 75% 62% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 62% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 25% -22.5%
15% -12.5% 25% -30.0%
20% -21.1% 25% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$49 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$30 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$67 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records