Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe43c…6aba crypto 37 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+9%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%23W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 48% -0.3%
≤30d 37 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 46% -4.1%
≤90d 37 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 46% -4.1%
all 37 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 46% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 46% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 38% -13.3%
15% -22.1% 30% -21.7%
20% -29.7% 27% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses23 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records