Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe43c…dffb sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-5%) realized −$20 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$43
other 17% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.7% +13.7% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 19 +7.6% -2.6% 42% 42% -16.9%
≤90d 19 +7.6% -2.6% 42% 42% -16.9%
all 19 +7.6% -2.6% 42% 42% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 42% -16.9%
10% -11.9% 42% -24.8%
15% -20.4% 42% -32.1%
20% -28.2% 42% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$38 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage13d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 45¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 44¢ 28¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $45 +$47 +103%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$22 -44%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $45 +$35 +78%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$65 +126%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $51 −$5 -9%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $55 −$53 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $105 −$102 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $59 +$46 +79%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $24 +$20 +82%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $48 −$33 -68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 −$26 -52%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $49 −$10 -20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$54 +105%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $32 +$20 +62%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$55 +217%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 −$4 -13%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots on target Jun 12 $17 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $103 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $29 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $45 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $51 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $45 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $47 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $55 8d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $105 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $105 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $59 11d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $44 11d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $2 11d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 15¢ $4 11d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 15¢ $6 11d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $3 11d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $24 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $24 11d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $48 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $50 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 49¢ $46 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $39 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $105 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $49 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 97¢ $51 12d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $32 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.39 · official $62.76 · 38 history records