Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe43b…f955 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,280 (-15%) realized −$1,280 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days−$1,374
14 days−$1,374
30 days−$1,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,091
other 5% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% -62.9%
≤30d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% -62.9%
≤90d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% -62.9%
all 88 +2.1% -7.6% 49% 45% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 45% -20.5%
10% -16.5% 45% -28.1%
15% -24.5% 44% -35.1%
20% -31.9% 44% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$83 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage215d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Jun 20 $505 +$120 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$65 +127%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,543 −$1,500 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $102 +$111 +109%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Mar 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $135 −$116 -86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Feb 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $40 +$98 +245%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 22 $457 +$47 +10%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 22 $222 +$236 +106%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-3.5) Feb 08 $20 +$20 +100%
1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Feb 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $60 +$1 +1%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $120 +$142 +118%
Spread: Patriots (-5.5) Jan 25 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jan 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Jean Silva win by KO or TKO? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Jan 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 20 $40 +$61 +152%
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Jan 20 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Jan 20 $30 +$30 +100%
Spread: Rams (-3.5) Jan 20 $40 +$40 +100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $50 +$44 +89%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Bills (-3.5) Jan 17 $4 +$4 +100%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5 Jan 17 $20 +$27 +137%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 11 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Packers (-4.5) Jan 11 $180 −$55 -30%
Wild vs. Golden Knights Jan 06 $20 +$18 +92%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 06 $23 −$10 -44%
Avalanche vs. Panthers Jan 05 $179 +$237 +132%
Spread: Georgia (-6.5) Jan 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Dec 30 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Dec 30 $20 +$18 +89%
Sabres vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Dec 30 $20 +$16 +82%
Sabres vs. Blues Dec 30 $20 +$18 +92%
Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 49.5 Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Jaguars (-4.5) Dec 29 $40 +$43 +108%
Spread: Steelers (-3.5) Dec 29 $80 +$45 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) SELL Spirit 80¢ $425 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) SELL Spirit 80¢ $98 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) SELL Spirit 80¢ $98 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) SELL Spirit 81¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $116 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $505 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $1,543 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $54 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $48 11d
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 17¢ $33 98d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs SELL Spirit 13¢ $19 98d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit 37¢ $10 98d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit 48¢ $25 98d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $100 98d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 60¢ $40 116d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 55¢ $40 118d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, BUY Strickland 29¢ $40 118d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $504 118d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $457 118d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 48¢ $222 130d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 130d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $100 132d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $100 132d
1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) BUY Patriots 55¢ $55 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records