Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe433…52de other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,486 (+1%) realized +$1,486 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,068per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$974now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$273
politics 33% −$39
sports 12% +$1,999
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% −$211
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -10.1% -18.7% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 64 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 3% -7.6%
all 93 -8.7% -17.4% 8% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 5% -8.2%
10% -25.3% 5% -17.0%
15% -32.5% 3% -25.0%
20% -39.1% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,478) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$324 vs −$9 · ×34.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$974
Realized+$1,486
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage107d
Avg bet$1,068
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $648 $648 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $327 $327 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $532 +$3 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,445 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,809 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,992 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,206 −$5 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,736 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,993 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,154 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 19 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $1,457 +$1,710 +117%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,431 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,426 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,776 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3,455 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 05 $35 −$4 -12%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 02 $947 +$446 +47%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 25 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $907 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $884 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $648 20h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $486 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $487 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $553 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $554 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $599 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $599 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $650 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $651 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $690 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $691 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $684 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $685 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $653 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $612 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $613 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $627 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $628 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $655 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $656 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $589 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $590 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 17d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,701 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,671 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,673 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.45 · official $974.45 (match) · 312 history records