Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe432…934a sports 473 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,047 (+0%) realized +$1,032 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%384W / 87L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days+$1,034
14 days−$909
30 days−$804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,490
other 1% −$503
crypto 0% −$82
world 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 399 -9.9% -18.5% 86% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 428 -5.7% -14.7% 85% 6% -9.2%
all 471 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 8% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 7% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 6% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$813) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$57 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,999
Realized+$1,032
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses384 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions2
Markets (closed)471 / 473
History coverage166d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Team Refuser 99¢ 100¢ $1,485 $1,499 +$15 (+1%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Carstensz 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: unknowns vs Arthrose Peek - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $124 $0 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $476 +$24 +5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $498 +$2 +0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $859 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,232 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,480 +$20 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE Jun 15 $261 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,968 +$35 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $490 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $179 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $501 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2,015 +$37 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $693 +$7 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,061 +$39 +2%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $990 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu Jun 13 $171 $0 +0%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $990 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $1,404 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $117 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 100¢ $358 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $67 9h
Counter-Strike: unknowns vs Arthrose Peek - Map 1 Winner BUY unknowns 100¢ $124 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 95¢ $476 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $756 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $15 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $713 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $108 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $17 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $192 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $144 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $72 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $24 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $192 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $21 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $99 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $520 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $163 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 99¢ $490 15h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $859 29h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 100¢ $214 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,999.00 · official $1,999.00 (match) · 2042 history records