Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe430…c27f other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$230 (-2%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,102per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.0% -12.2% 78% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -3.0% -12.2% 78% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -3.0% -12.2% 78% 0% -9.8%
all 9 -3.0% -12.2% 78% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$105 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,102
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $753 +$6 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $397 −$5 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $451 −$205 -45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $283 +$17 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $988 +$12 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,089 +$11 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,791 +$100 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $759 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $393 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $397 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $753 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $246 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $451 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $283 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $988 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $336 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $320 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $94 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $163 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,790 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $186 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,798 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $993 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records