Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe42e…e8ca other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$148 (+18%) realized +$151 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$182
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$145
other 36% −$2
tech 3% $0
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +27.3% +15.2% 100% 25% +70.9%
≤90d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 89% 22% +15.4%
all 13 +9.2% -1.2% 92% 15% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 15% +13.0%
10% -10.6% 15% +2.2%
15% -19.3% 15% -7.7%
20% -27.2% 15% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$172 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage170d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $224 $222 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $160 +$182 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $133 +$135 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $12 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $174 −$172 -99%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 06 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $228 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $160 10d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 49¢ $133 29d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $174 60d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $13 89d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 95d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $9 103d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 113d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $12 128d
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $9 138d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 144d
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 153d
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 161d
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.71 · official $221.71 (match) · 26 history records