Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe42a…f023 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$113 (-36%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -49.8% -54.6% 27% 20% -46.1%
≤30d 15 -49.8% -54.6% 27% 20% -46.1%
≤90d 15 -49.8% -54.6% 27% 20% -46.1%
all 15 -49.8% -54.6% 27% 20% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.6% 20% -46.1%
10% ← realistic here -58.9% 20% -51.2%
15% -62.9% 20% -55.9%
20% -66.6% 13% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $62 −$28 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $36 −$27 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$43 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $31 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records