Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E4 0xe429…9f17 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$69

7 days+$123

14 days+$23

30 days+$23

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-17.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+5.9%	-4.2%	83%	67%	+2.8%
≤30d	7	-9.3%	-17.9%	71%	57%	-7.5%
≤90d	7	-9.3%	-17.9%	71%	57%	-7.5%
all	7	-9.3%	-17.9%	71%	57%	-7.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.9%	57%	-7.5%
10%	-25.8%	29%	-16.3%
15%	-32.9%	29%	-24.4%
20%	-39.5%	0%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$99 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$239

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions6

Markets (closed)7 / 13

History coverage9d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$16	+16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$10	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$44	+44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$297	+$55	+18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$201	+$96	+48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$98	−$98	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 14	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	84¢	$297	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$100	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$98	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	51¢	$101	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.77 · official $238.77 (match) · 19 history records