Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe428…a0e8 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$16
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$19
crypto 3% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 60% +8.6%
≤30d 18 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤90d 18 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +1.0%
all 18 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 50% +1.0%
10% -19.0% 39% -8.6%
15% -26.9% 28% -17.5%
20% -34.0% 11% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage11d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $210 $206 −$4 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $49 +$6 (+14%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $29 +$9 +32%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -36%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -11%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $164 1h
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 84¢ $211 2h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $38 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 68¢ $12 5d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 24¢ $12 5d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $29 5d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 26¢ $4 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 8d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.11 · official $464.11 (match) · 58 history records