Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe426…f4ff sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$256 (+17%) realized +$167 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$490
other 16% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +20.1% +8.7% 63% 63% +6.3%
≤30d 19 +20.1% +8.7% 63% 63% +6.3%
≤90d 19 +20.1% +8.7% 63% 63% +6.3%
all 19 +20.1% +8.7% 63% 63% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 63% +6.3%
10% -1.7% 63% -3.8%
15% -11.2% 63% -13.1%
20% -19.9% 63% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$65 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 46¢ 100¢ $52 $114 +$61 (+117%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ 82¢ $74 $106 +$31 (+42%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $59 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $75 +$45 +60%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $75 +$53 +70%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $75 +$48 +64%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $64 +$41 +65%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) Jun 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $25 +$51 +206%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $75 +$90 +119%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $75 +$65 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $77 +$72 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $72 −$71 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $50 +$50 +99%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $75 +$49 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $74 +$50 +67%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $72 +$65 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $60 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $75 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $53 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $124 5h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 58¢ $75 15h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) BUY Fokina 56¢ $75 16h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $75 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $105 21h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL Nightblood Gaming 68¢ $76 21h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 60¢ $64 22h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $75 25h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $140 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 22¢ $5 26h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 21¢ $20 26h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 60¢ $75 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $72 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $75 28h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 46¢ $10 30h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 51¢ $10 38h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 51¢ $67 38h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 53¢ $75 38h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 38h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 42h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $65 44h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 50¢ $20 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 50¢ $38 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $75 2d
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) SELL Sabalenka 100¢ $124 2d
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 100¢ $137 2d
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 59¢ $74 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.05 · official $278.25 · 37 history records