Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe425…c424 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$2
other 18% +$4
sports 6% −$2
culture 3% −$2
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
all 26 +2.5% -7.2% 31% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -9.7%
10% -16.1% 8% -18.3%
15% -24.2% 8% -26.2%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage468d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $44 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $42 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jul 05 $0 $0 +50%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $11 +$1 +5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $13 −$2 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $19 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $21 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $41 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $3 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $3 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $45 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $45 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.16 · official $40.16 (match) · 77 history records