Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe422…26b1
sports · 22 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$15 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$113
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)8 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 14 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 99¢ $21 $44 +$23 (+110%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 62¢ 81¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+30%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Prelims) Vinicius Oliveira 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$1
other 30% +$17
crypto 5% +$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No $1 1h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 9h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $1 9h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $1 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $1 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 31h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $6 31h
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P BUY Vinicius Oliveira 53¢ $1 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $2 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $2 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $2 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 31h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.9% -43.8% 38% 38% -59.3%
≤30d 8 -37.9% -43.8% 38% 38% -59.3%
≤90d 8 -37.9% -43.8% 38% 38% -59.3%
all 8 -37.9% -43.8% 38% 38% -59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 38% -59.3%
10% -49.2% 12% -63.2%
15% -54.1% 12% -66.7%
20% -58.6% 12% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.48 · official $113.48 (match) · 38 history records