Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E4 0xe41d…891d crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$1 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day71.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-3.4%	-12.6%	58%	47%	+7.4%
≤30d	19	-3.4%	-12.6%	58%	47%	+7.4%
≤90d	19	-3.4%	-12.6%	58%	47%	+7.4%
all	19	-3.4%	-12.6%	58%	47%	+7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover71.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.6%	47%	+7.4%
10% ← realistic here	-20.9%	37%	-2.8%
15%	-28.6%	26%	-12.2%
20%	-35.6%	21%	-20.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized−$1

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions4

Markets (closed)19 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day71.0

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)	Rafael Fiziev	50¢	50¢	$101	$100	−$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Over	52¢	48¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	0¢	50¢	$0	$6	+$6 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	20¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 25	$21	−$10	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 25	$42	+$13	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 25	$37	−$4	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 25	$42	+$44	+104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$10	+188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 25	$3	+$2	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 25	$30	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$41	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 25	$57	+$12	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 25	$36	+$4	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 25	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 25	$5	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$1	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Down	54¢	$31	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	SELL Up	21¢	$5	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$6	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$11	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$7	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$5	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$31	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$26	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$24	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	24¢	$9	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$46	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$6	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	SELL Down	56¢	$6	22m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.78 · official $116.23 (match) · 77 history records