Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe41d…5d92 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% $0
other 21% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 22% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 15% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 15% 8% -9.7%
all 30 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage469d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 44¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $122 −$2 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 −$2 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $17 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $17 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $32 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $9 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $23 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $25 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $33 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.67 · official $35.67 (match) · 108 history records