Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe418…d4e4 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$4
politics 42% −$2
world 5% $0
sports 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage90d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,048 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $961 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $973 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $168 −$1 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 18 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $7 $0 -6%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 16 $16 $0 -3%
Human moon landing in 2026? Apr 15 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 29 $162 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $26 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 8m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 15m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 21m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $13 36m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 56m
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $722 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $238 1h
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $961 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,060 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 29h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 29h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 29h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 29h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $744 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 30h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $13 43h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 43h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $973 43h
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? SELL Yes $8 62d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes $9 62d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $167 67d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $168 67d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $166 67d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $166 67d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $6 67d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $7 67d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $167 69d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $167 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records