Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe418…5c1a crypto 1600 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,129 (-6%) realized −$1,129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%1148W / 452L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$1,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.5% -12.7% 85% 55% -12.7%
≤30d 1523 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 49% -15.3%
≤90d 1600 -5.4% -14.4% 72% 47% -15.2%
all 1600 -5.4% -14.4% 72% 47% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 47% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 30% -23.4%
15% -30.1% 22% -30.8%
20% -37.0% 6% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1148 / 452
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1600 / 1600
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1600 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records