Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe417…429c sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-17%) realized −$108 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$66
sports 22% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 29% -15.7%
≤30d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 29% -15.7%
≤90d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 29% -15.7%
all 7 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 29% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 29% -15.7%
10% -14.0% 29% -23.8%
15% -22.3% 29% -31.1%
20% -29.9% 29% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$36 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 13¢ 22¢ $40 $67 +$27 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$62 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 14¢ $21 35m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 13¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 33h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.98 · official $338.98 (match) · 13 history records