Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe416…d04b other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 32% −$16
sports 8% +$54
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -0.8% -10.2% 16% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 6% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage138d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $337 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $291 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,281 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $349 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $618 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 09 $293 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $326 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $290 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 15h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 34h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $33 37h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 16d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 21d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 21d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 22d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $345 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 25d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $335 25d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $335 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $297 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $298 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $256 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $256 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records