Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe415…951c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$4
other 28% $0
politics 10% +$2
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 0% -8.8%
all 42 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 5% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage484d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $91 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 27 $2 $0 -12%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 25 $3 $0 -11%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 19 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25? Feb 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $23 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $23 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $46 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $38 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $11 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $44 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $44 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records