Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe411…2b24 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$182 (-36%) realized −$181 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -38.9% -44.8% 27% 27% -51.4%
≤30d 15 -38.9% -44.8% 27% 27% -51.4%
≤90d 15 -38.9% -44.8% 27% 27% -51.4%
all 15 -38.9% -44.8% 27% 27% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 27% -51.4%
10% -50.0% 27% -56.1%
15% -54.9% 27% -60.3%
20% -59.3% 27% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 58¢ 57¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 45¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $61 −$14 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$20 +172%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $21 +$20 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $35 +$23 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 +$20 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $16 6m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $20 31m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $60 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $11 42h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $49 43h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $30 43h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $14 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $14 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $12 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $22 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $37 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $11 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $24 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $10 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $21 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $19 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $20 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $35 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $20 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $58 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.22 · official $93.22 (match) · 35 history records