Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe40f…18ba world 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%43W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$13
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$17
economics 17% $0
sports 17% +$3
other 14% +$2
politics 8% −$13
finance 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 18% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 31 -2.9% -12.2% 32% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 43 +44.0% +30.3% 37% 5% -9.9%
all 127 +14.7% +3.8% 34% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 3% -9.9%
10% -6.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -15.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -23.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses43 / 84
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage316d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $93 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $74 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $99 −$8 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $58 −$7 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $205 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $378 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $281 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $81 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $98 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $172 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $8 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $56 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $90 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $87 +$3 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $135 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $62 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $67 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $93 −$11 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $1,212 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $667 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $168 −$12 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $312 +$3 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $9 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $0 $0 -95%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $55 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $49 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $82 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $89 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $92 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $60 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $25 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $75 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $93 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $94 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $94 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.41 · official $55.42 (match) · 465 history records