Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe40e…1e9c other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$11
world 26% −$4
sports 17% −$1
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 4% −$1
finance 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.7% -11.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -11.0%
all 50 -5.1% -14.2% 26% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -11.3%
10% -22.4% 0% -19.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage316d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $48 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $49 −$4 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 30 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $5 $0 -10%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 17 $10 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 37h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 53¢ $45 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $49 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records