Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe40e…a94d other 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2228 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$461,980 (+617%) realized +$478,687 · open −$16,707
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +300% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +196% what you keep after slip
Net edge+196%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%35W / 60L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$797per market
Trades / day2228.3pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$103,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$21,127
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2228 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+262.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +300.5% +262.4% 37% 31% -76.1%
≤30d 95 +300.5% +262.4% 37% 31% -76.1%
≤90d 95 +300.5% +262.4% 37% 31% -76.1%
all 95 +300.5% +262.4% 37% 31% -76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2228.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +262.4% 31% -76.1%
10% +227.7% 28% -78.4%
15% ← realistic here +196.0% 26% -80.5%
20% +167.0% 26% -82.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +301% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$939) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +117% → late +480% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$425 vs −$1,954 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$103,467
Realized+$478,687
Unrealized−$16,707
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses35 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions108
Markets (closed)95 / 94
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$797
Trades / day2228.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 108 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $63,747 $63,732 −$14 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $11,556 $11,772 +$216 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 26¢ $353 $1,590 +$1,237 (+351%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16,528 $1,502 −$15,027 (-91%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,440 $1,445 +$5 (+0%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,410 $1,418 +$8 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,410 $1,417 +$7 (+1%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,412 $1,415 +$3 (+0%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,407 $1,407 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,365 $1,372 +$7 (+1%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,335 $1,342 +$8 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,335 $1,342 +$8 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,335 $1,342 +$7 (+1%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Yes 6¢ 28¢ $181 $872 +$691 (+381%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 96¢ 96¢ $804 $806 +$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Yes 6¢ 28¢ $128 $609 +$481 (+376%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? No 95¢ 95¢ $596 $598 +$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? No 97¢ 99¢ $568 $576 +$8 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $323 $521 +$198 (+62%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $304 $517 +$213 (+70%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $176 $435 +$259 (+147%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 98¢ $431 $433 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $314 $424 +$110 (+35%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? No 98¢ 72¢ $508 $372 −$136 (-27%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $309 $336 +$27 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $40,182 −$40,182 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 24 $632 −$632 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $153 +$166 +109%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$7 +78544%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Will BNB reach $1000 in January? Jun 24 $267 −$267 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $369 −$375 -102%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $0 +$410 +1981814%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $341 −$352 -103%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $435 −$435 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $308 −$294 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $338 −$338 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $0 −$22,406 -509222416%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$294 +1050769%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 24 $1 +$81 +13684%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 24 $830 −$830 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $0 +$205 +1827589%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 24 $890 −$890 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $155 −$140 -90%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $0 +$205 +821959%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Ghana? Jun 24 $206 −$348 -169%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $265 −$265 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $317 −$335 -106%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 24 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $0 +$365 +1660164%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 24 $0 −$27 -7341%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $270 −$309 -115%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 24 $193 −$179 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jun 24 $341 −$341 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $328 −$328 -100%
Will BNB dip to $700 in January? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $0 +$275 +2621529%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $57 −$99 -174%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $28,531 −$25,842 -91%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $274 −$318 -116%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $33 +$71 +213%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $0 +$302 +1080181%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $386 −$405 -105%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jun 24 $1,916 −$1,916 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $0 +$206 +1836811%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 94¢ $15 17m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY No 85¢ $11 20m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY No 91¢ $12 35m
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 86¢ $7 35m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia? BUY No 95¢ $130 48m
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $160 52m
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $98 52m
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $70 52m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? BUY No 98¢ $90 53m
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 97¢ $208 54m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 94¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY No 89¢ $421 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY No 89¢ $1,335 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY No 91¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 86¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY No 85¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 86¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY No 90¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? BUY No 93¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY No 85¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY No 89¢ $890 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 95¢ $93 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103,467.05 · official $103,447.62 (match) · 3500 history records