Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe404…b7bd world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+4%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
tech 26% $0
sports 15% +$2
other 12% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.6% +29.0% 100% 60% +28.3%
≤30d 5 +42.6% +29.0% 100% 60% +28.3%
≤90d 8 +14.3% +3.4% 88% 38% -5.1%
all 8 +14.3% +3.4% 88% 38% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 38% -5.1%
10% -6.5% 38% -14.2%
15% -15.5% 38% -22.5%
20% -23.8% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 27¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +133%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 26 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.52 (match) · 19 history records