Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe404…ba3d crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+7%) realized +$226 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$390
world 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 38% +14.5%
≤30d 50 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 38% +14.5%
≤90d 50 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 38% +14.5%
all 50 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 38% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 38% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 38% +3.5%
15% -36.8% 30% -6.5%
20% -43.0% 28% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$28 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage2d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$417 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$89 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $121 +$157 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$157 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$85 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$46 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$133 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$68 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$7 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $62 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $64 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $63 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 94 history records