Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe401…94be other 30 markets active 4d ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$2
other 23% −$2
politics 10% −$1
crypto 5% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.9%
all 30 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage464d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $53 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $1 $0 -21%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 13? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -40%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $31 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $26 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $15 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $21 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $16 10d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 338d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 395d
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus BUY No 96¢ $2 412d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 426d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 426d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records