Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe401…b102 sports 91 markets active 4h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$3 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$7
other 37% −$1
crypto 3% +$9
world 2% −$8
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 52% -10.2%
≤30d 80 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 52% -10.2%
≤90d 80 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 52% -10.2%
all 80 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 52% -10.2%
10% -21.5% 48% -18.8%
15% -29.1% 40% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 36% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)80 / 91
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 59¢ 84¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+117%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+122%)
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3h
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $3 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $2 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 9h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $3 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $5 19h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $3 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 31h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 31h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $2 31h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $3 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 31h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 50¢ $5 38h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $2 38h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 38h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $3 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.21 · official $48.22 (match) · 141 history records