Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe401…7b88 sports 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1026 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$672,135 (+685%) realized +$671,903 · open +$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%208W / 480L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day1026.1pace
Fees−$1,574est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$12,995
other 7% −$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1026 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 688 -29.9% -36.5% 30% 25% -32.9%
≤30d 688 -29.9% -36.5% 30% 25% -32.9%
≤90d 688 -29.9% -36.5% 30% 25% -32.9%
all 688 -29.9% -36.5% 30% 25% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1026.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.5% 25% -32.9%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 24% -39.3%
15% -48.2% 19% -45.2%
20% -53.2% 16% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +35% → late -94% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$134 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9,881
Realized+$671,903
Unrealized+$232
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses208 / 480
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,574
Open positions76
Markets (closed)688 / 461
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day1026.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $1,017 $1,013 −$4 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 53¢ $865 $875 +$10 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 48¢ 58¢ $576 $702 +$126 (+22%)
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ assists No 85¢ 99¢ $456 $535 +$79 (+17%)
Angel Martínez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 8¢ 50¢ $85 $500 +$415 (+488%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 36¢ $522 $498 −$23 (-4%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 75¢ 56¢ $568 $420 −$148 (-26%)
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 74¢ 78¢ $393 $412 +$18 (+5%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ 60¢ $363 $379 +$16 (+4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 45¢ 52¢ $272 $313 +$41 (+15%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 63¢ 55¢ $356 $308 −$48 (-13%)
Gavin Williams: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Over 69¢ 50¢ $416 $300 −$116 (-28%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 42¢ 52¢ $210 $259 +$49 (+23%)
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 50¢ $205 $252 +$48 (+23%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 58¢ 57¢ $240 $238 −$2 (-1%)
Noah Okafor: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 45¢ $135 $225 +$90 (+67%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 60¢ 55¢ $240 $218 −$22 (-9%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 62¢ $209 $216 +$7 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 42¢ 42¢ $155 $157 +$2 (+1%)
Jovo Lukić: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 18¢ $150 $139 −$11 (-8%)
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists No 75¢ 50¢ $206 $137 −$69 (-33%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Over 21¢ 46¢ $52 $116 +$64 (+121%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 46¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+5%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 39¢ 20¢ $195 $100 −$95 (-49%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 50¢ 50¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 416 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +138%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 17 $728 −$728 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $384 −$398 -104%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5) Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $4,691 −$4,710 -100%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $754 −$855 -113%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Spread: Ducks (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Jun 17 $532 −$532 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $164 −$159 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $34 0m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $6 1m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $15 2m
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 42¢ $1 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $1 5m
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $3 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $11 8m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $20 10m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $58 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $1 21m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $24 24m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 25m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $1 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $12 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $8 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $1 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $1 26m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $2 27m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $21 28m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $3 29m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $4 29m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $11 29m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $6 30m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $3 38m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $54 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 42m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 42¢ $70 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,881.32 · official $9,879.03 (match) · 3500 history records